“Maritime Terrorism and Energy Security in the Mediterranean Basin” in cooperation with Transnational Crime and Corruption Center, Georgia, NATO Security Through Science Program Advanced Research Workshop 2006


Ayman S. G. (Yürütücü), Kalkan Ö.

NATO Destekli Araştırma Projesi, 2006 - 2008

  • Proje Türü: NATO Destekli Araştırma Projesi
  • Başlama Tarihi: Nisan 2006
  • Bitiş Tarihi: Temmuz 2008

Proje Özeti

Scientific Content

 

 

Today global security is inseparable from the security of global economy and all developed economies are dependent upon on abundant supply of energy both in terms of stable prices and guaranteed supplies. We observe an increase in the number of the countries that rely on supplies traveling over enormous distances either through pipelines or tankers. Many states including North America and Europe are dependent on imported energy.

 

Currently about a million barrels per day have already been transported via Baku/Tbilisi/Ceyhan oil pipeline towards the European and American markets. The volumes of natural gas dedicated to the European Union are relatively small up to 2011. With the termination of the phase one of Shakh Deniz project in Azerbaijan, up to 20 billion m3 is expected to be transported to the EU by South Caucasus gas pipeline. In addition to that thousands of tons of oil have been transported by small tankers shuttling between east and west costs of the Caspian, then by railway and again shuttling again between the costs of the Black Sea and through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits. 

 

Importing energy is not an easy process. Especially when we consider the fact that energy corridors are located in areas of increased violence like the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia. Vulnerabilities related to logistics pose serious challenge to global energy security.

 

The geographical location of Black Sea determines its key position as the center of main sea transport communications. The main ways connecting Europe with Asia, Middle and Central east are passing through this region and are characterized by high intensity of passenger and cargo flows. Oil and gas from Central Asia and the Middle East move along Black Sea shipping lines and pipelines to Europe and other points west. Maritime domain provides an ideal tool for the new type of risks to exploit and transform themselves into threats.

 

Sea is attractive environment for terrorists. Trafficking in weapons, drugs and human beings via sea have been important source of income for them. In addition, sea provides greater scope for acts to disrupt economies of nation or region because huge amount of commercial merchandise move by sea permanently.

 

These risks gained new dimensions with the introduction of new technologies. Terrorists have genuinely found a new and surprising ‘course of action’. In the military sense, the under water or sub surface domain is a new medium of warfare. Terrorists acquiring midget submarine and some swimmer delivery vehicles could pose important threats to maritime security. For example, mine lying in Estuaries would cause a huge environmental event (a 200,000 ton tanker striking a 500 kg bottom-mine) with immediate and follow on serious of damages.  Effective measures to cope with these risks require good knowledge on newly developed technologies.

 

Currently there are no terrorist groups that are solely involved in maritime terrorist attacks. However, there are even now several terrorist organizations and there could be even more terrorist groups in the future, which have a capability for committing acts of terrorism in maritime domain. Defining maritime terrorism and evaluating organizations acquiring capability (or will) constitute an important phase of developing cooperation at the international arena. Most importantly because, they help to create the necessary awareness about such threats among e the policy makers, the national security and counter terrorism experts. Acquiring such a level of consciousness is a prerequisite for developing national and international capabilities for intelligence collection, physical security and crisis management in order to be able to anticipate, prevent and neutralize such threats and to deal with the resulting crisis if the threats do materialize could be developed.

 

It is worth to note that it is quite problematic to draw a line between maritime terrorism and piracy. Piracy is a crime motivated by greed, and thus predicated on immediate financial gain. Terrorism is motivated by political goals beyond the immediate act of attacking or hijacking a maritime target. Despite the fact that end goal for both terrorists and pirates are different, they might use the same tactics of ship seizure and hijackings and same methods of terrorizing their victims. The potential problems posed by sea-borne terrorism are most severe in the 600-mile (1,000-km) long Straits of Malacca, transited by 50,000 ships a year, where piracy has long established roots.

 

The challenge of terrorism is inseparable from the challenge of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In the past, mostly state actors wanted to acquire nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and missiles for their delivery. These days however non-state actors (terrorist organizations and groups) are also seeking WMD capabilities. Nonproliferation export controls is one of the tools that contains spread of WMD technologies and equipment. – including getting these technologies and equipment into the hands of terrorists. As such, export control activities directly and indirectly help fighting terrorism. Maritime export control activities have direct relevance to fighting maritime terrorism. Coast guards that patrol national and international waters are to be trained and equipped to detect smuggling of conventional weapons and WMD components regardless of whether they are destined to governments or to terrorist groups. In this respect, one of the most effective programs is the Export Control and Related Border Security Assistance (EXBS) program which is led and sponsored by the US government. Training and equipping coast guards to enhance their ability to fight weapons proliferation and maritime terrorism is one of the aspects of this program. The EXBS program has helped more than 40 countries around the world to improve their ability to prevent and interdict shipments of dangerous items and technologies by providing a wide variety of practical assistance tailored to each individual country’s needs. EXBS’s activities in Azerbaijan constitute an evident example of effective fighting weapons proliferation and maritime terrorism.

 

The presence of unresolved, potentially explosive separatist conflicts poses numerous security threats to regional and international security. The access of separatists to the sea and the proximity of this kind of conflicts to major seaports and energy transportation routes raise further concerns. In case of reoccurring armed confrontation, the separatists might try to partially disrupt the maritime transportation or attack the oil terminals on the sea thus inflicting significant political, economic or military damage to the opposite side. Unresolved conflicts and uncontrolled territories pose a significant threat to maritime security in Black Sea region. A vivid example to threats emanating from separatist conflicts is the case of uncontrolled territory of Abkhazia.

 

Nations in the Black Sea Basin have a common interest in achieving two general objectives: to facilitate the healthy maritime commerce that supports economic security, and to protect against sea-related hostile, criminal, terrorist, and other unlawful acts.

 

When we examine the ways how we tackle with the problem of maritime terrorism we see that effective maritime terrorism similar to effective counter terrorism on land is dependent on intelligence collection capability, effective physical security, a good crisis management capability in case the terrorist managed to carry out an act of maritime terrorism. Moreover, effective maritime counter terrorism depends on regional and international cooperation in the form of intelligence sharing, mutual operation assistance, and mutual legal assistance an affective enforcement of internationally agreed measures to cope with maritime terrorism.

 

The existing agreements are outdated and do not respond to new security challenges. There is an obvious need to better interaction among the regional energy producing countries, energy consuming and transit countries in order insure the security and safety of the transportation.

 

Formulating a workable international response to these threats also requires a comprehensive analysis on terrorism, entailing social, educational and economic approaches. Given the rapid changes and political strategies within the Black Sea and Caspian Sea basins, now is the time to look to improve prevention and detection by way of the human factor.