The regional trade dynamics of Türkiye: Moving toward EU or MENA?
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s10663-026-09714-1
- Dergi Adı: EMPIRICA
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Geobase, Political Science Complete, Political Science Abstract (IPSA), Social Science Premium Collection (ProQuest), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO), Pharma Collection (ProQuest), Political Science Database (ProQuest)
- İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This paper examines Türkiye's regional trade dynamics over 2000-2023 using a panel gravity model for 77 trading partners, asking whether trade is shifting from the European Union (EU) toward the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Exports, imports, and total trade are estimated by Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) with partner and year fixed effects, with pooled PPML and log-linear robustness checks. Gravity fundamentals hold: larger economies trade more with Türkiye, while distance remains a strong barrier. Regional effects are asymmetric across margins. For exports, EU and MENA partners trade more intensively than others, with a stronger, time-stable MENA premium. For imports, regional premia vanish or turn negative once fundamentals are controlled for, reflecting globally diversified sourcing of energy and intermediates. Free trade agreements and EU accession raise exports and total trade. Rather than decoupling from Europe, the EU remains the structural anchor, while MENA is an established export destination.