Determinants of earthquake preparedness in Istanbul, Türkiye: An integrated model combining health psychology theories and psychosocial factors
PROGRESS IN DISASTER SCIENCE, cilt.31, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 31
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100632
- Dergi Adı: PROGRESS IN DISASTER SCIENCE
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Geobase, Directory of Open Access Journals
- İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Despite the severe physical, social, and psychological consequences of earthquakes, preparedness levels in T & uuml;rkiye remain low. To address this gap, the present study integrates key determinants of earthquake preparedness by drawing on the Health Belief Model (HBM), the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), and additional psychosocial factors, including fatalism, anxiety, trust, optimistic bias, responsibility attribution, and conscientiousness. The aim was to clarify predictors of preparedness and inform the development of tailored interventions for earthquake risk reduction. The study recruited 577 adults aged 18-64 residing in Istanbul through online data collection. Validated scales were used to assess preparedness behaviors, HBM and TPB constructs, and additional psychosocial variables. Following ethical approval and a pilot study, data were analyzed using structural equation modelling. Due to violations of multivariate normality, path analyses were conducted using maximum likelihood estimation with bootstrap resampling (2500 samples). Overall preparedness levels were low (mean score: 37.5/100). The structural model explained 56% of the variance in intention and 28% of the variance in preparedness behaviors. Significant predictors included perceived threat, cues to action, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, intention, fatalism, trust, anxiety, and optimistic bias. These findings highlight the importance of theory-based, multi-component interventions to enhance earthquake preparedness.