The MEST score provides earlier risk prediction in IgA nephropathy


Creative Commons License

Barbour S. J., Espino-Hernandez G., Reich H. N., COPPO R., ROBERTS I. S. D., FEEHALLY J., ...Daha Fazla

KIDNEY INTERNATIONAL, cilt.89, sa.1, ss.167-175, 2016 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 89 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2016
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1038/ki.2015.322
  • Dergi Adı: KIDNEY INTERNATIONAL
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.167-175
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The Oxford Classification of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) includes the following four histologic components: mesangial (M) and endocapillary (E) hypercellularity, segmental sclerosis (S) and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (T). These combine to form the MEST score and are independently associated with renal outcome. Current prediction and risk stratification in IgAN requires clinical data over 2 years of follow-up. Using modern prediction tools, we examined whether combining MEST with cross-sectional clinical data at biopsy provides earlier risk prediction in IgAN than current best methods that use 2 years of follow-up data. We used a cohort of 901 adults with IgAN from the Oxford derivation and North American validation studies and the VALIGA study followed for a median of 5.6 years to analyze the primary outcome (50% decrease in eGFR or ESRD) using Cox regression models. Covariates of clinical data at biopsy (eGFR, proteinuria, MAP) with or without MEST, and then 2-year clinical data alone (2-year average of proteinuria/MAP, eGFR at biopsy) were considered. There was significant improvement in prediction by adding MEST to clinical data at biopsy. The combination predicted the outcome as well as the 2-year clinical data alone, with comparable calibration curves. This effect did not change in subgroups treated or not with RAS blockade or immunosuppression. Thus, combining the MEST score with cross-sectional clinical data at biopsy provides earlier risk prediction in IgAN than our current best methods.

The Oxford Classification of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) includes the following four histologic components: mesangial (M) and endocapillary (E) hypercellularity, segmental sclerosis (S) and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (T). These combine to form the MEST score and are independently associated with renal outcome. Current prediction and risk stratification in IgAN requires clinical data over 2 years of follow-up. Using modern prediction tools, we examined whether combining MEST with cross-sectional clinical data at biopsy provides earlier risk prediction in IgAN than current best methods that use 2 years of follow-up data. We used a cohort of 901 adults with IgAN from the Oxford derivation and North American validation studies and the VALIGA study followed for a median of 5.6 years to analyze the primary outcome (50% decrease in eGFR or ESRD) using Cox regression models. Covariates of clinical data at biopsy (eGFR, proteinuria, MAP) with or without MEST, and then 2-year clinical data alone (2-year average of proteinuria/MAP, eGFR at biopsy) were considered. There was significant improvement in prediction by adding MEST to clinical data at biopsy. The combination predicted the outcome as well as the 2-year clinical data alone, with comparable calibration curves. This effect did not change in subgroups treated or not with RAS blockade or immunosuppression. Thus, combining the MEST score with cross-sectional clinical data at biopsy provides earlier risk prediction in IgAN than our current best methods.