Chaos in hydrology: A case study in Konya Basin, Turkey


Cingi D. O., Akkaya E. E., Akyuz D. E.

13th International Conference on Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science (FLINS), Belfast, Birleşik Krallık, 21 - 24 Ağustos 2018, cilt.11, ss.1349-1356 identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Cilt numarası: 11
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Belfast
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Birleşik Krallık
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1349-1356
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Every natural behaviour is non-linear, but not always is chaotic. This paper aims to investigate low dimensional chaotic behaviour of study area: Konya Basin by using non-linear time series techniques with three stages: i) Mutual Information, ii) False Nearest Neighbour ( FNN) algorithm, iii) Stretching Exponential. These techniques calculate the delay time, the embedding dimensions and the maximal positive Lyapunov exponent respectively. The data set consists of daily average flow rates of three stations in Konya Basin through the study period between 1968 and 2014. Analysed data implied that these time series have shown chaos. This information helps catchment manager to forecast future and the extreme flow rates such as droughts and floods.