Forecasting the Number of Electric Vehicles in Turkey Towards 2030: SARIMA Approach

Saraç M. S., ERTÜRK M. A.

Energies, cilt.18, sa.18, 2025 (SCI-Expanded) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 18 Sayı: 18
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/en18184808
  • Dergi Adı: Energies
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, INSPEC, Metadex, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: data preprocessing, electric vehicles in Turkey, SARIMA forecasting model
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study endeavors to project the trajectory of electric and hybrid vehicle adoption through 2030, operating under the premise that specific hybrid models can harness electricity from charging stations akin to fully electric counterparts. Employing the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) time series model, we preprocess the current counts of electric and hybrid passenger vehicles. Additionally, we use this model to forecast future counts. Our preprocessing findings suggest that Turkey currently experiences a deficit of approximately 26% in electric and hybrid vehicles, considering conventional market dynamics from 2018 to 2023. Furthermore, assuming the observed seasonal fluctuations in passenger vehicle sales will similarly influence electric and hybrid vehicle demand, a secondary preprocessing is conducted on the dataset. Applying this methodology, our projections indicate Turkey will approach a total of 2.6 million electric and hybrid vehicles by the close of 2029, offering insights for policymakers and private stakeholders in charting the course of charging infrastructure development.