Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Conference, Birmingham, İngiltere, 12 - 14 Eylül 2013, ss.1-20, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
ABSTRACT
Turkish economy has been opening up since 1980’s.
Another transformation took place in 2000’s: Against the severe competition
from other emerging economies Turkey integrated further with world markets.
Turkish international trade mainly consists of the sectors of manufacturing
industry and also determines the dynamics in this industry. Therefore, export
demand, import competition and technological changes (productivity) are very
important topics for the sectors of Turkish manufacturing industry.
The employment effects of trade are based on the
Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) theory. There is a positive relation between an
expansion of export demand and employment due to increase in demand for goods
of the export sector with relatively more skilled labour. On the other hand,
import competition makes a negative effect on sectoral employment resulting
from increased competition from countries with a relative abundance of cheap
unskilled labour. However, a distinction should be made between those direct
effects and productivity-induced indirect effects of international trade on
employment. Because trade variables influence productivity and therefore,
indirectly affect employment. The
indirect effect of international trade on employment requires that: Export
demand and/or import competition affect technology, which is measured by
productivity, and this increase in productivity affects employment.
Using data for 20 sectors of Turkish manufacturing
industry for the period between 2003 and 2010, this study analyzes direct and
indirect effects of international trade on sectoral employment in Turkey, by
employing panel data techniques. The first section of the study is a survey of
the literature on the relationship between trade, productivity and employment.
The second section empirically investigates the relationship between trade and
sectoral employment, trade and productivity and finally productivity and sectoral
employment in the manufacturing industry of Turkey. The last section gives a
summary of the empirical results and concluding remarks.
Keywords: International Trade, Export Demand, Import
Competition, Productivity, Employment, Labour Market, Panel Data Techniques.
JEL Codes: F14, F16.