Distribution patterns of Quercus ilex from the last interglacial period to the future by ecological niche modeling

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Suicmez B., Avcı M.

ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION, cilt.13, sa.10, ss.1-17, 2023 (SCI-Expanded)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 13 Sayı: 10
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/ece3.10606
  • Dergi Adı: ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, BIOSIS, Greenfile, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-17
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The plants' geographic distribution is affected by natural or human-induced climate change. Numerous studies at both the global and regional levels currently focus on the
potential changes in plant distribution areas. Ecological niche modeling can help predict the likely distribution of species according to environmental variables under different
climate scenarios. In this study, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of Quercus ilex L. (holm oak), a keystone species of the Mediterranean ecosystem, for the
Last Interglacial period (LIG: ~130 Ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: ~22 Ka), mid-Holocene (MH: ~6 Ka), and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) for 2050–2070 obtained from CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM global climate scenarios respectively. The models were produced with
algorithms from the R-package “biomod2” and assessed by AUC of the receiver operating characteristic plot and true skill statistics. Aside from BIOCLIM (SRE), all model
algorithms performed similarly and produced projections that are supported by good evaluation scores, although random forest (RF) slightly outperformed all the others.
Additionally, distribution maps generated for the past period were validated through a comparison with pollen data acquired from the Neotoma Pollen Database. The results
revealed that southern areas of the Mediterranean Basin, particularly coastal regions, served as long-term refugia for Q. ilex, which was supported by fossil pollen data.
Furthermore, the models suggest long-term refugia role for Anatolia and we argue that Anatolia may have served as a founding population for the species. Future climate scenarios
indicated that Q. ilex distribution varied by region, with some areas experiencing range contractions and others range expands. This study provides significant insights
into the vulnerability of the Q. ilex to future climate change in the Mediterranean ecosystem and highlights the crucial role of Anatolia in the species' historical distribution.
K E YWORDS
Anatolia, climate change, keystone species, Mediterranean Basin, paleovegetation, Quaternary