Mapping Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change in Türkiye's GAP Region: A District-Level Composite Index Approach

Duran S., DOĞAN M., Azadi H.

Land Degradation and Development, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1002/ldr.70688
  • Dergi Adı: Land Degradation and Development
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Materials Science & Engineering Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: adaptation policy, agricultural vulnerability, GAP region, hierarchical cluster analysis, IPCC framework, principal component analysis
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Türkiye's Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) Region, a semi-arid area facing climatic, socio-economic, and infrastructural challenges, lacks thorough district-level assessments. This study provides the first comprehensive, district-level analysis of agricultural vulnerability in the GAP region, incorporating climatic, agricultural, socio-economic, and infrastructural factors to inform climate adaptation and resilience policies while supporting district-targeted regional planning. We compiled long-term climate records (1960–2023) from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), agricultural and infrastructural indicators from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and government reports, and socio-economic statistics for 2023 from TURKSTAT and related ministries for all 82 districts of the GAP region, covering nine provinces. A composite vulnerability index (CVI) was constructed using principal component analysis (PCA) to integrate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) was used to identify spatial vulnerability typologies. Results show a clear north–south divide: Baykan, Gerger, Bağlar, Batman, Hasankeyf, Dargeçit, and Cizre are the most vulnerable, whereas Şahinbey, Oğuzeli, Besni, Samsat, Nurdağı, Şehitkamil, and Polateli exhibit the lowest vulnerability, supported by stronger socio-economic and infrastructural capacity. Temperature-driven exposure is the dominant pressure, while higher adaptive capacity systematically mitigates risk. A six-cluster typology further indicates that vulnerability is governed by the interplay of exposure, sensitivity, and—most decisively—adaptive capacity. Strong adaptation can offset high exposure, whereas hotspots emerge where extreme heat–aridity coincides with limited adaptation. These insights provide a replicable evidence base for targeting district-specific investments in irrigation governance, cooperative capacity, and market access to strengthen resilience across the GAP region.