Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, Adana, Türkiye, 17 - 18 Ekim 2019, ss.1-20, (Özet Bildiri)
ABSTRACT
Turkey experienced a major
structural change in the 1980s by shifting from an import substituting
industrialization strategy to an export-oriented growth model via implementing
an orthodox structural adjustment program. Turkey has also gone through a
substantial process of liberalization at the national as well as international level
in the 2000s and it is seen as a successful example of integration to the world
economy.
Turkish manufacturing
industry is very important for Turkish economy in terms of total production,
employment and international trade. According to the figures of Turkish
Statistical Institute, the share of
Turkish manufacturing industry in total production and employment was 18% and
25% respectively in 2017 while its share in total exports and imports became 94%
and 82% respectively for the same year.
In
2017, there were nearly 380 thousand enterprises in the manufacturing industry
and more than 4 million people were employed in these firms. However, the
distribution of the enterprises by the number of employees displays the
structure of Turkish manufacturing industry very well: 87% of the enterprises
employ less than 10 workers but only 1% of them employ more than 250 workers.
These
small and medium-sized
enterprises (SME) of Turkish Manufacturing Industry provided 44% of production
and 67% of employment in 2017; export and import shares of them became 56% and
39% respectively in the same year.
On the other hand, Turkish foreign
trade mainly consists of the sectors of manufacturing industry and also
determines the dynamics in this industry. Therefore, export demand, import
competition and technological changes (productivity) are very important topics both
for the sectors and for sectoral employment in Turkish manufacturing industry.
The
current study analyzes the relationship between international trade,
productivity and sectoral employment using data including 22 sectors of
Turkish manufacturing industry for the period 2009 - 2017 and employing
panel data techniques, Industry
classification is NACE Rev. 2 (2-digit).
The
estimations show that foreign trade is effective on sectoral employment in
Turkish manufacturing industry. Both export demand and import penetration have
a significant impact on sectoral employment in Turkey. While the increase in
export demand leads to an increase in labour demand, the increase in import
penetration reduces it.
However,
the relationship between productivity and foreign trade makes a negative effect
on sectoral employment. Our findings suggest that export demand is not a
determinant of productivity while import competition and productivity is
negatively related.
The
strong negative relationship between import competition and productivity,
measured by value added per worker, suggests that firms, when faced with international competition, cannot
adjust the level of employment to decreased demand. On the other hand,
the main determinant of productivity in Turkish manufacturing industry seems to
be investment expenditures. The productivity equation shows that this variable
is positive and statistically significant.
The first section of the
study is a survey of the literature on the relationship between trade,
productivity and employment. The second section empirically investigates the
relationship between trade and sectoral employment, trade and productivity and
finally productivity and sectoral employment in the manufacturing industry of
Turkey. The last section gives a summary of the empirical results and
concluding remarks.
JEL Codes: F14, F16.