The Effect of Pilotage on Navigational Accidents: Time Series Analysis of Cointegration for the İstanbul Strait


Bahadir M., Arli E., OKŞAŞ O.

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1177/03611981261422139
  • Dergi Adı: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Compendex, ICONDA Bibliographic
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

The & Idot;stanbul Strait, which plays an important role in maritime transportation in T & uuml;rkiye and worldwide, is one of the busiest waterways with its dense traffic, handling approximately 3.5%-4.0% of global seaborne trade volume. Because of this dense ship and cargo traffic, it is of great importance to prevent accidents that may occur in the Strait. Most accidents occur when the pilotage service is not used. In this study, the aim is to determine how effective passage with a pilot in the & Idot;stanbul Strait is in reducing accidents by analyzing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration method. Therefore, data on the number of accidents and the number of ships receiving pilotage services in the & Idot;stanbul Strait between 1996 and 2023 are analyzed, and the statistical relationship between them is investigated. This study found a significant long-term relationship between pilotage services and the number of accidents. It is concluded that the pilotage service has a negative effect on the number of accidents: a one-unit increase in the number of passages with a pilot is associated with a -0.0036 decrease in the number of accidents.