Concluding Synthesis: Probabilistic Scenarios for the Future of Money
Contributions to Finance and Accounting, Springer Nature, ss.503-513, 2026
- Yayın Türü: Kitapta Bölüm / Araştırma Kitabı
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/978-3-032-22946-5_31
- Yayınevi: Springer Nature
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.503-513
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Monetary sovereignty, CBDC - Digital currency - Payments infrastructure, Distributed ledger technology, Fintech regulation, Scenario analysis, Stablecoins, Tokenised money
- İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This concluding chapter synthesises the book’s exploration of tokenised money, encompassing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), commercial bank money tokens, and stablecoins, through a structured, forward-looking framework of probabilistic scenarios. Rather than offering deterministic predictions, the authors draw on long-standing expertise in payments, regulation, and financial infrastructure to map plausible trajectories across regions and technological dimensions over the coming decade. The analysis proceeds in four stages. First, an idealised, perfectly tokenised scenario of seamless global interoperability is examined and assessed as highly unlikely in the medium term, given entrenched regulatory divergence, fragmented infrastructure, and geopolitical constraints. Second, regional scenarios are developed for the United States, Europe, Asia, and beyond: US dollar-denominated stablecoins are expected to consolidate their dominance in global settlement corridors; Europe is projected to progress cautiously, led by regulation rather than market adoption; Asia’s wallet-based ecosystems are seen as continuing to expand while accommodating multiple monetary form factors; and emerging economies, particularly those in inflation-prone or geopolitically motivated contexts, may increasingly turn to dollar stablecoins or regionally anchored alternatives. Third, transversal scenarios are offered on infrastructure evolution, corporate and B2B adoption, the risk of confidence shocks, and the atomisation of money into distinct Digital Currency Areas. A gradual token adoption scenario is considered the most plausible infrastructure trajectory, with B2B use cases expected to lead consumer adoption across most markets. Finally, a high-level evolution timeline is proposed, spanning regulatory experimentation in 2026–2027 through to final broad consumer integration, even in retail, beyond 2040. The chapter concludes that tokenised money constitutes a genuine structural force in the evolution of the payments and banking landscape, yet one whose transformative potential will be realised unevenly and subject to the complex interplay of trust, governance, sovereignty, and institutional inertia that has always attended monetary innovation.