Dam failure analysis and flood disaster simulation under various scenarios

PAŞA Y., PEKER İ. B., Haci A., GÜLBAZ S.

WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, cilt.87, sa.5, ss.1214-1231, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 87 Sayı: 5
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.2166/wst.2023.052
  • Dergi Adı: WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Analytical Abstracts, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), BIOSIS, Biotechnology Research Abstracts, CAB Abstracts, Chimica, Compendex, EMBASE, Environment Index, Geobase, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1214-1231
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of a possible dam failure under various scenarios and to generate a flood hazard map for two consecutive dams located in a study area with a dense-residential region and a heavy-traffic highway. Two consecutive dams consist of Elmali 2, a concrete-buttress dam and Elmali1, an earth -fill gravity dam in the upstream and downstream, respectively. Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) was used to develop a dam failure model. Dam failure scenarios were examined regarding three main criteria: the Breach Formation Time (BFT), the Number of Failed Buttresses (NFB) of Elmali2, and the Reservoir Volume Ratio (RVR) of Elmali 1. Accordingly, flood peak depth (Hp), peak flow rate (Qp), peak velocity (vp), and time to reach the peak (tp) are discussed. The results showed that BFT and NFB of Elmali 2 were highly effective on these values, whereas RVR of Elmali 1 had no significant effect. Moreover, the total area affected by potential floods was calculated with a comparative areal change analysis using flood inundation and flood hazard maps obtained. Estimated damage costs indicate that in the worst-case scenario, more than 500 buildings will be affected in the region.