From indicators to insight: A Bayesian network analysis of structural convergence in the EU circular economy
SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, cilt.67, ss.279-293, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 67
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.spc.2026.07.011
- Dergi Adı: SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Compendex, INSPEC
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.279-293
- İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Although the circular economy is often framed in terms of ambitious targets and desirable outcomes, its development is shaped by the broader system conditions within which it unfolds. Yet most assessments consider indicators in isolation and therefore overlook the dependencies linking material, environmental, and economic dimensions. Using 15 indicators from Eurostat's Circular Economy Monitoring Framework for 27 EU countries over 2014-2023, this study applies a Bayesian network, an interpretable artificial intelligence-based probabilistic graphical model, to map these dependencies and examine system behavior under alternative evidence configurations. Arc strength and Direct Influence analyses reveal a material-centered structure in which trade in recyclable raw materials occupies the most prominent position and is closely associated with employment in circular economy sectors. Scenario-based inference and clustering identify five recurring response regimes. Despite arising from different shocks and policy configurations, these regimes often converge toward similar posterior patterns. Their differences concern the channels of adjustment rather than changes in the underlying structure of production, consumption, and resource use. This convergence indicates limited adaptive diversity and suggests that the EU circular economy reorganizes activity within existing dependencies rather than undergoing structural transformation. This interpretation is reinforced by Material Import Dependency, which differentiates how consumption pressure is associated with municipal recycling. Overall, the EU circular economy appears adaptive but predominantly non-transformative, calling for policies that address structural dependencies rather than isolated indicator improvements.