The aerial embassy: measuring the diplomatic returns of sovereign aviation
International Politics, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Publication Date: 2026
- Doi Number: 10.1057/s41311-026-00800-6
- Journal Name: International Politics
- Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, American History and Life, Geobase, Historical Abstracts, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index, Political Science Abstract (IPSA), Social Science Premium Collection (ProQuest), Political Science Database (ProQuest)
- Keywords: Aeropolitics, Aviation geography, Disaster diplomacy, Infrastructural statecraft, Soft power, Spatial rupture
- Istanbul University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented global spatial rupture, highlighting the geopolitical utility of logistical lifelines. However, the diplomatic returns of state-backed aviation remain empirically unquantified due to an immaterial bias in soft power literature and the siloed nature of transport economics. Utilizing a 48-month Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework, this study contrasts the geopolitical trajectories of state-backed flag carriers against privatized, market-disciplined airlines. Overcoming pandemic-era scheduling inaccuracies, we extract raw ADS-B spatial telemetry to operationalize kinetic statecraft. Deploying dual econometric models against macro-perception indices and micro-diplomatic praise text-mined from the Global Diplomacy Net (GDN) corpus, we empirically demonstrate the “Illusion of Latent Capital”—proving that domestic aviation bailouts yielded zero geopolitical returns. Conversely, deploying a state-backed “aerial embassy” generated bilateral diplomatic praise at a rate 3.35 times higher than market-disciplined carriers. Ultimately, this research proves that during systemic crises, soft power is inherently kinetic and strictly logistical.