A Products Mapping-Based Analysis of Türkiye's Agricultural Trade Performance: A Longitudinal Perspective with Categorical Transitions

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Karagöz Özenç F.

Istanbul Journal of Economics, cilt.76, sa.1, ss.54-88, 2026 (Hakemli Dergi)

Özet

This study examines agricultural trade performance of Türkiye from 2002 to 2023 using the products mapping approach developed by Widodo (2008), which combines the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index and Trade Balance Index (TBI) to classify products into four categories. This taxonomy provides insight into export specialization and trade dynamics across three major agricultural product groups: animal products, plant products, and processed food products. Using trade data at the 6-digit HS level, the study tracks product transitions between categories over time through bivariate categorical analysis, supported by contingency tables and scatter diagrams. The findings show that processed food products exhibit the strongest performance, characterized by rising net exports and a notable transition from the least competitive category D to more competitive categories A and B, indicating an increasing comparative advantage. In contrast, plant products display more complex dynamics. Although category A products positively contribute to the trade balance, these gains are largely offset by increasing deficits in categories B and D. This outcome is closely linked to a production structure which has increasingly centered on the processing of imported agricultural inputs. This structure has generated sustained trade surpluses in processed food products since the 2000s, alongside a weakening performance in raw and unprocessed agricultural goods. For animal products, the strong performance in fish and poultry exports is the main driver of net export growth. These products moved from category C in 2002 to category A by 2023, thereby partially offsetting rising imports of live animals and meat.