Do Oil Prices Still Matter For Economic Performance: An ARDL Model for Turkey
Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online), vol.8, no.2, pp.279-300, 2023 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 8 Issue: 2
- Publication Date: 2023
- Journal Name: Journal of emerging economies and policy (Online)
- Journal Indexes: ERIHPlus, Index Copernicus
- Page Numbers: pp.279-300
- Istanbul University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
Understanding the effect of oil price swings on macroeconomic performance is decisive in the analysis for
policy makers. This need has made it necessary to conduct sophisticated investigations for researchers since
the first OPEC embargo. Analyses that focused on the traditional linear relationship between oil price changes
and macroeconomic performance were followed by nonlinear and asymmetrical analyses, as well as ARDL
methods, both in developed and developing countries in recent years. To that end, this study aims to investigate
the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship between oil prices and economic growth, proxied by
industrial production index, consumer price index, and real exchange rates applying ARDL cointegration
analysis to monthly data for the 2001:07 and 2023:05 period in Turkey. Results of our empirical model show
that industrial production is positively related to oil prices between 2001:07 and 2017:08. However, the
relationship between real oil prices and the industraial production index shifts a negative correlation from
2017:09 to 2023:05