Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Conference, Bern, İsviçre, 12 - 14 Eylül 2019, ss.1-20
ABSTRACT
Turkey experienced a major structural change in the
1980s by shifting from an import substituting industrialization strategy to an
export-oriented growth model via implementing an orthodox structural adjustment
program. Turkey has also gone through a substantial process of liberalization
at the national as well as international level in the 2000s and it is seen as a
successful example of integration to the world economy.
Turkish international trade mainly consists of the
sectors of manufacturing industry and also determines the dynamics in this industry.
Therefore, export demand, import competition and technological changes
(productivity) are very important topics for the sectors of Turkish manufacturing
industry.
According to the figures of Turkish Statistical
Institute, the share of Turkish manufacturing
industry in total exports and imports was 94% and 82%, respectively in 2017
while its share in total production and employment became 18% and 25%,
respectively for the same year.
The current study analyzes
the direct and indirect effects of international trade on sectoral employment
using data including 22 sectors of the Turkish manufacturing industry
for the period 2009 - 2017 and employing panel data techniques, Industry classification is NACE Rev. 2 (2-digit).
The estimations show that international
trade is effective on sectoral employment in the Turkish manufacturing
industry. Both export demand and import penetration have a significant impact
on sectoral employment in Turkey. While the increase in export demand leads to
an increase in labour demand, the increase in import penetration reduces it.
However, the relationship
between productivity and international trade makes a negative effect on
sectoral employment. Our findings suggest that export demand is not a
determinant of productivity while import competition and productivity is
negatively related.
The strong negative
relationship between import competition and productivity, measured by value
added per worker, suggests that firms, when
faced with international competition, cannot adjust the level of employment to
decreased demand. On the other hand, the main determinant of
productivity in the Turkish manufacturing industry seems to be investment
expenditures. The productivity equation shows that this variable is positive and
statistically significant.
The first section of the study is a survey of the
literature on the relationship between trade, productivity and employment. The
second section empirically investigates the relationship between trade and
sectoral employment, trade and productivity and finally productivity and sectoral
employment in the manufacturing industry of Turkey. The last section gives a
summary of the empirical results and concluding remarks.
Keywords: International Trade, Export Demand, Import Competition,
Productivity, Employment, Labour Market, Panel Data Techniques.
JEL Codes: F14, F16.