Can a creeping segment become a monitor before destructive major earthquakes?

Kutoglu H. S., Gormus K. S., Deguchi T., Koksal E., Kemaldere H., Gundogdu O.

NATURAL HAZARDS, vol.65, no.3, pp.2161-2173, 2013 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 65 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2013
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11069-012-0466-0
  • Journal Name: NATURAL HAZARDS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.2161-2173
  • Istanbul University Affiliated: Yes


There are few places in the world to monitor aseismic creep. One of them is the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault. The observations in the Ismetpasa showed that the creep rate progressively decreased along the 40 years before the 1999 Kocaeli-Golcuk (Mw = 7.6) earthquake and then started increasing. This phenomenon might be a systematic of the creeping segments. If it is the case, this behavior can be utilized for early warning before the expected major earthquake in the Marmara Sea. In this study, the creep rate of the segment has been studied by GPS and InSAR technologies. The results showed that the rate has decreased to 1.3 cm a year. This result might be an indication of stress starting increase. If the segment retains the decreasing trend and it is ceased by a major earthquake, it would be a proof of the relationship between the creep process and the earthquakes. Then, the creep process might be utilized for early warning.