A network model simulation proposal for river basin management plans (RBMPs) in Turkey

Burak Z. S., Bilge A. H., Ülker D.

EUROPEAN WATER, cilt.57, ss.231-236, 2017 (Hakemli Dergi)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 57
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Dergi Adı: EUROPEAN WATER
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.231-236
  • İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Turkey is a negotiating candidate country with the EU. Although Turkey has been developing its water resources policy taking into account of the present and future water needs of its growing population, developments at global level and the on-going EU accession process, it stands at a critical threshold value with regard to its per capita water demand and is expected to become a water-stressed country beyond 2030. Moreover, climate change impacts on water resources lead to irregularities in the flow regime, which constitutes an additional severe burden on water management Already heavy population in water scarce-regions has necessitated water transfer from adjacent basins. This management approach requires a comprehensive decision support system taking into account different situations. In this study, we aim to use a network simulation model within the Greater Istanbul Metropolitan Area that has been facing a heavy population increase caused by local immigration since the 1970’s. We run the algorithm repeatedly for different random realizations of estimated inputs and we show that existing water resources are sufficient until 2040 with the projected demand, providing that existing resource conditions remain unchanged. Also the model results show that significant changes in resource replenishment, which may be generated by natural and anthropogenic adverse impacts, will draw back the horizon year of 2040.