Institutional adaptation and the evolution of military intervention strategy: a comparative analysis
SN Social Sciences, cilt.6, sa.10, 2026 (Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 6 Sayı: 10
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s43545-026-01820-y
- Dergi Adı: SN Social Sciences
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Civil-military relations, Institutional adaptation, Military intervention, Myanmar, Thailand
- İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır
Özet
Why did Myanmar’s military stage a costly coup in 2021 despite possessing constitutionally entrenched safeguards, while Thailand’s military addressed an equally challenging electoral situation in 2023 through constitutional and parliamentary mechanisms? Existing studies highlight institutional legacies, threat perception, or factional balances. They capture static conditions well, but they do not explain how militaries adjust their intervention strategies over time. This article develops the concept of institutional adaptation to address that gap. Institutional adaptation refers to the accumulated ability of a military-led conservative coalition to convert political crises into durable institutional safeguards. It comprises three dimensions: institutional design capability, coalitional embeddedness, and strategic iteration. A comparison of Thailand and Myanmar shows how variation in institutional adaptation shaped divergent intervention trajectories. The Thai military-led coalition accumulated institutional tools across successive crises and moved toward constitutional and judicial forms of intervention. Myanmar’s military followed a different path. Its 2008 constitutional safeguards remained intact, but they formed a single-layer design. When institutional channels failed after the 2020 election, the military reverted to direct control.