Spring temperature variability over Turkey since 1800CE reconstructed from a broad network of tree-ring data


Kose N. , Guner H. T. , Harley G. L. , GUIOT J.

CLIMATE OF THE PAST, vol.13, no.1, pp.1-15, 2017 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 13 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Doi Number: 10.5194/cp-13-1-2017
  • Title of Journal : CLIMATE OF THE PAST
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-15

Abstract

The meteorological observational period in Turkey, which starts ca. 1930 CE, is too short for understanding long-term climatic variability. Tree rings have been used intensively as proxy records to understand summer precipitation history of the region, primarily because they have a dominant precipitation signal. Yet, the historical context of temperature variability is unclear. Here, we used higher-order principle components of a network of 23 tree-ring chronologies to provide a high-resolution spring (March-April) temperature reconstruction over Turkey during the period 1800-2002. The reconstruction model accounted for 67% (Adj. R-2 = 0.64, p < 0.0001) of the instrumental temperature variance over the full calibration period (1930-2002). The reconstruction is punctuated by a temperature increase during the 20th century; yet extreme cold and warm events during the 19th century seem to eclipse conditions during the 20th century. We found significant correlations between our March-April spring temperature reconstruction and existing gridded spring temperature reconstructions for Europe over Turkey and southeastern Europe. Moreover, the precipitation signal obtained from the tree-ring network (first principle component) showed highly significant correlations with gridded summer drought index reconstruction over Turkey and Mediterranean countries. Our results showed that, beside the dominant precipitation signal, a temperature signal can be extracted from tree-ring series and they can be useful proxies in reconstructing past temperature variability.