Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
1st International conference on Mediterranean Geosciences Union, MedGU 2021, İstanbul, Türkiye, 25 - 28 Kasım 2021, ss.185-190
Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is used to develop a framework to overcome deep uncertainties without the need for forecasting and identifying what these uncertainties may be. Instead, long-term decision-makers can be informed about possible solutions to various future scenarios with DAPP. The framework is established by first identifying the factors that cause uncertainty, such as rising sea levels and increasing rainfall intensity and durations. Next, the ‘tipping points’ of the system are determined by simulating the system with various future scenarios using the identified factors. Finally, viable solutions that protect the design from plans are studied, and the system is manufactured using logical combinations of the feasible solutions. The simulation results give a framework for identifying which solution can be implemented and will protect against which one of the established future scenarios. This study developed DAPP for a coastal catchment in Bahrain with an arid climate. First, the site's proposed main stormwater collection components are simulated using hydraulic modeling software (PCSWMM). Next, the factors that cause uncertainty in the study site are identified as tide level, sea-level rise, rain duration, and intensity. Considering these factors, 16 scenarios will determine the proposed system’s tipping points. The 16 scenarios are combinations of four return periods of tide level and rainfall (the 5-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year) for the current scenario, i.e., without forecast, and with three climate change forecasts of rainfall duration, intensity, and sea-level rise.