Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Conference, Munich, Almanya, 11 - 13 Eylül 2014, ss.1-14, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
ABSTRACT
Turkey experienced a major structural change in the
1980s by shifting from an import substituting industrialization strategy to an export-oriented
growth model via implementing an orthodox structural adjustment program. Turkey
has also gone through a substantial process of liberalization at the national
as well as international level in the 2000s and it is seen as a successful
example of integration to the world economy.
Manufacturing industry is very crucial for the
production and employment indicators of Turkey as well as for foreign trade.
With the figures of 2012, the share of Turkish
manufacturing industry in total employment is % 18, in GDP is % 24.4, in total
exports and in total imports is % 94 and % 74.5, respectively.
The magnitude of the
employment and wage effects of international trade will depend on the nature of
the labor market in question and on the wage-setting mechanism. In a standard
competitive labor market, in which wages move to equate labor demand and labor
supply, the extent of wage and employment adjustment to a shift in the demand
for labor will be given by supply and demand elasticities. In a unionized labor
market, where wages diverge from market-clearing rates, the patterns may be
more complex. On the other hand, if workers of different skill levels are
imperfect substitutes, adjustment to shifting industry demand could occur
through changes in skill-group wage differentials and through changes in the
skill composition of the industry workforce.
The traditional trade theory, based on Heckscher-Ohlin
and Stolper-Samuelson theorems, expects a positive effect of an increase in the
trade intensity of production (export/output and import/output) on the wage
share (through both wage and employment effects) due to the increased labor
intensity of production in developing countries with a comparative advantage in
labor intensive industries in the long run. Although it is suggested that in
the short run the immobility of sector-specific capital may prevent the optimal
reallocation of production across sectors, and thereby may result in a decline
in the wage share, this is perceived as a temporary phenomena. In versions of
the traditional trade theory that distinguish between skilled vs. unskilled
labor, the expectation is that the wage of the unskilled workers will increase
as a result of openness, and that of the skilled workers will decrease in the
long run, and since developing countries have relatively abundant unskilled
labor, the implication of that for the aggregate wage share is an increase.
This study analyzes the effects of international trade
on employment and wages in the Turkish manufacturing industry for the period
between 2000 and 2012, using panel data techniques. The first section of the
study is a survey of the literature on the relationship between international
trade, employment and wages. The second section empirically investigates the
relationship between trade and sectoral employment and trade and wages in the
sectors of the manufacturing industry of Turkey. The last section gives a
summary of the empirical results and concluding remarks.
Keywords: International Trade, Export Demand, Import Competition,
Employment, Wages, Labour Market, Panel Data Techniques.
JEL Codes: F14, F16.