Bounded Rationality, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Credit Risk Perceptions: Evidence from the Factoring Sector
Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics , cilt.21, sa.3, ss.4885-4923, 2026 (TRDizin)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 21 Sayı: 3
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Dergi Adı: Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.4885-4923
- İstanbul Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The aim of this study is to examine the impact of macroeconomic expectations of senior managers operating in the Turkish factoring sector on their perceptions of credit risk in the short run through an expectation-based approach. The analysis is based on monthly survey data collected under the AFI (Association of Financial Institutions) from January 2024 to December 2025, which includes managers' forecasts for inflation, exchange rate and economic growth. The study intentionally does not include realized macroeconomic indicators. Instead, it focuses only on how expectations are processed perceptually. Credit Risk Perception is analyzed in two dimensions: the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio expectation and collection-performance expectation. Ordered Probit Models were estimated for ordinal dependent variables, and marginal effects with robust standard errors were calculated to measure their impact. According to the results, macro expectations do not have a statistically significant impact on expectations regarding NPLs. However, the collection-performance model is significant at the model level and displays larger marginal effects, especially for exchange-rate and growth expectations. The results show that credit risk perception is multidimensional; the same macroeconomic signals generate asymmetric effects on different risk dimensions. In this respect, the study's findings contribute to the literature and provide useful information for policymakers.