What is next for Türkiye? Trade, specialization, and growth considering the trilemmas of globalization

SMTEA2025, İstanbul, Türkiye, 29 - 31 Mayıs 2025, ss.46, (Özet Bildiri)

Globalization has brought along conditions that differentiate the foreign trade dynamics of countries and,

in particular, has determined the characteristics of countries participating in global value chains through

their specialization dynamics. Trilemmas of globalization approaches aim to define the constraints faced

with globalization in this context. Moreover, the trade wars between the US and China raise the question

of how countries will differentiate export and employment conditions with the transition to protectionist

trade policies. Based on this, the paper aims to analyze the linkages between trade, structural change, and

growth in Türkiye. A decomposition method for the calculation of the aggregate productivity level in

Türkiye for the period of 1990-2018 will be implemented. The global value chain participation index, real

effective exchange rate, openness data, and task specialization index derived from the occupation

database for the period of 2000-2018 are used in setting up the relevant linkages. In addition, changes in

the employment level of the manufacturing sector and the level of imports from the USA, China, and the

EU are considered. As a result of the findings, Türkiye's trade and specialization orientations within the

framework of globalization trilemmas will be discussed.

Keywords: Structural change and trade, global value chains, tasks and specialization

JEL Codes: F14, O14, O4, F6