Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
İçtimaiyat (Online), cilt.8, sa.2, ss.518-538, 2024 (Hakemli Dergi)
Why do governments put some of their proposals to the
popular vote despite the uncertainties about the referendum results?
Furthermore, under which conditions do they have a better chance of winning in
referendums. This study argues that some variables related to the issues put to
referendum and the campaigns conducted are more influential in determining the
referendum outcome than structural conditions such as the economic situation
and the quality of democracy. It has three hypotheses. First, the higher the
intensity of campaigning by the parties in the referendum, the lower the
probability that the government proposal will be approved. Second, the higher
the level of complexity of the package put to a referendum, the lower the
probability of approval. Third, if voters already have strong predispositions
on the issue being voted on, the results of the referendum resemble the results
of general elections, i.e. it is easier to predict the outcome of the
referendum. These hypotheses will be evaluated by analyzing three referendums
(2007, 2010, 2017) held during the Justice and Development Party period in the
Turkish case.